EB: Appendix D A Review of Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen

Appendix D

A Review of Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen, 2024

The highly respected reporter and New York Time’s best-selling author Annie Jacobsen has recently written perhaps the best researched summary of the effects of nuclear war (Nuclear War: A Scenario, Penguin, 2024). It assumes a full-scale nuclear war between America and Russia. As a result Jacobsen claims, “More than 5 billion could die from a [nuclear] war between the United States and Russia” (p. 287). Those who survive would essentially return to “cave man” days.

Jacobsen claims such a nuclear conflict would also mean: “the death of agriculture. The death of farming. The death of crops. After 10,000 years of [the human history of] planting and harvesting, humans return to a hunter-gatherer state” (286). In other words, Jacobsen envisions a Remaining World with virtually no civilization, agriculture, or economy.

An excerpt of Jacobsen’s book will be shared below. However, it is important to understand how biblical prophecy differs from her scenario.

For our purposes, Jacobsen’s scenario is probably even more extreme than what prophetic Scripture predicts. First, the countries in the 10-nation Endtime Coalition (Russia, China, etc.) controlled by the Antichrist, will not be destroyed in nuclear war, but rather by Christ at the Battle of Armageddon (BBP ch. 4, sec. B.5). It has been suggested that the cyber-warfare and EMP capabilities of Russia and China will significantly diminish America’s ability to retaliate (EB ch. 10, sec. B).

Second, this is why Revelation 6:8 tells us that during The Beginning of Birth Pains, a fourth of the earth will be killed by sword (war), famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth (NIV). As argued elsewhere, this is specifically referring to a geographical fourth of the earth and primarily describing America and probably Africa (BBP ch. 18, sec. E). Accordingly, the following excerpt from Endtime Babylon will be quoted:

Destroying the financial wealth and agriculture of America will result in the third seal being opened, unleashing worldwide and severe economic hardship and food scarcity such that two pounds of wheat will cost a day’s wages (vs. 5-6). Such scarcity would result because, “The United States exports more food than any other country in the world.” Therefore, the destruction of America in the 2nd Seal of war would lead to the economic scarcity the 3rd Seal of Preparation is predicting.

While death from starvation may not be happening during the 3rd Seal, it will be with when the fourth seal is opened. At that point, Death will be given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine, and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth (vs. 7-8). As argued elsewhere, this one fourth of the earth is referring to a part of its geographical area, not population (cf. BBP ch. 18, sec. E). Therefore, while the severe economic hardship described in the 3rd Seal will probably affect the entire world, it seems the deaths described in the 4th Seal will only affect a fourth of the earth. However, it seems that virtually all of the people living in this one fourth of the earth will die during the 4th Seal.

Of course, this will include all of the people living in Endtime Babylon (America). As explained above, those not perishing in the initial blast will die of radiation, disease, and famine over a period of time, just as reflected in the 2nd through 4th Seals of Preparation in Revelation 6. It was also argued elsewhere that the food shortages, and resulting plagues will especially effect the African continent because of its great dependence on importing food from the rest of the world (cf. BBP ch. 18, sec. E). America and Africa make up one fourth of the geographical area of the earth. Therefore, it is possible that the Remaining World will primarily consist of people living outside of America and Africa.

Therefore, we can correct a common assumption about the results of nuclear war in our world. It is regularly claimed that nuclear war will result in the complete annihilation of all life on Earth. But this is not what Scripture predicts. The Bible says the nuclear destruction of Endtime Babylon (America) and the resulting deaths in the Remaining World will affect only a fourth of the earth (Rev 6:8). As noted previously, biblical prophecy even indicates that massive flooding will extinguish the fires in Endtime Babylon (America) to avoid a “nuclear winter” (cf. EB ch. 9, sec. D).

Accordingly, there will be a large number of people living in the other three fourths of the Earth even after Antichrist’s nuclear attack on Endtime Babylon (America) and the occurrence of The Beginning of Birth Pains and the first four Seals. For example, Revelation portrays a great multitude that no one could count, from every nation, tribe, people, and language who come out of the great persecution (7:9, 14) that occurs after these events.

Likewise, even after a third of mankind is killed by the three plagues of fire, smoke and sulfur that will come out of the mouths of demonic horses and riders in the 6th Trumpet Punishment (Rev 9:17-18), there is a massive number of soldiers killed at the Battle of Armageddon, such that the blood that will flow will be a stream about 180 miles long and as high as a horse’s bridle (Rev 14:20 NLT). Even if this description is somehow hyperbole, it represents a lot of blood and therefore a lot of people still dying at the very end of Christ’s Wrath.

Of course, the nuclear destruction of America and the resulting deaths in a fourth of the earth will be an unprecedented and unimaginable disaster for the world. However, it is not nuclear warfare that ultimately destroys this world. God will directly punish and destroy the entire Earth after the opening of the 7th Seal and Christ’s Endtime Wrath begins in the Trumpet and Bowl Punishments during the Day of the Lord (cf. Rev 6:12-17; 8:1-9:21; 15:1-16:21). This will occur after Antichrist has had his opportunity to reign over the Remaining World and complete The Greatest Persecution of the Church. (EB, ch. 11, sec. C.2)

Therefore, contrary to Jacobsen, “civilization” will continue in the Remaining World of 75% of the earth. However, there will be unprecedented economic hardship and social unrest.

Also, contrary to Jacobsen’s scenario, biblical prophecy predicts of Endtime Babylon (America) that probably relatively soon after it is destroyed with nuclear weapons, The sea will rise over Babylon; its roaring waves will cover her (Jer 51:42 NIV; cf. Rev 18:21). Reasons for that happening were suggested elsewhere (EB ch. 9, sec. D; ch. 10, sec. A.3). This would very significantly reduce the amount of soot in the atmosphere that would cause a “nuclear winter” and the cessation of agriculture that Jacobsen predicts.

Obviously, the economic systems of the world will be severely damaged by the destruction of America. However commerce will continue in the rest of the world. Indeed, we read of the False Prophet, probably during The Greatest Persecution:

It also forced all people, great and small, rich, and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their foreheads, so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name (Rev 13:16-17 NIV).

Christians will not be able to buy or sell, but evidently the rest of the world will be doing so. Therefore, contrary to Jacobsen, it will not be a “hunter-gatherer” and “cave man” civilization that survives Antichrist’s Attack on America. Economic systems (although perhaps without electronic banking) will be operating.

The Antichrist and 10-nation Coalition will desire to completely destroy Endtime Babylon (America) (Rev 17:16), but not the rest of the world. They will want to preserve as much of the Remaining World as possible in order to rule over it.

Accordingly, Jacobsen’s scenarios and research regarding the effects of a nuclear war between America and Russia are exaggerated in light of what the Bible predicts for this world. They are probably very accurate of what will occur in America, but not worldwide. However, the results of her research can still inform us of some of the dangers that will need to be prepared for in the Endtimes. The following excerpt suggests some of these:

“The nuclear bombs sent aloft from all sides eventually stop striking targets. The high-yield ground and air bursts eventually cease. Across America, everything continues to burn. Cities, suburbs, towns, forests. The smoke produced from burning skyscrapers and other tall buildings generates a noxious smog of pyrotoxins. Burning building materials, including fiberglass and insulation, spew cyanides, vinyl chloride, dioxins, and furans into the atmosphere. This haze of lethal smoke and gases kills survivors and further poisons the scorched earth.

Large scale, 100-to-200-mile-radius rings of fire push out from each of the 1,000 ground zeros across America. At first, there seems to be no end in sight to the destruction from these mass fires. With no pumped water to put anything out, these fires ignite new fires, trapping and killing people who managed to survive the initial mass extermination that came with the full-scale nuclear exchange.

Across less-densely populous areas of America, notably in the Western states, forest fires rage. Coniferous trees in particular cannot handle radioactive fallout. They die and topple over, creating gigantic piles of kindling wood for ensuing fires. The intense firestorms create further apocalyptic conditions with cascading consequences. Oil and natural gas supplies, coal seams, and peat bogs burn for months on end.

As a by-product of all these cities and forests burning across America—and also across Europe, Russia, and parts of Asia—so intensely, for so long, some 150 Tg (about 330.6 billion pounds) of soot gets lofted into the upper troposphere and stratosphere. This black, powdery soot blocks out the sun. Its warming rays disappear. “The density of soot would reduce global temperatures by roughly 27 degrees Fahrenheit,” climatologist Alan Robock explains. “In America, it would be more like a drop of 40 degrees Fahrenheit, slightly less near the oceans.” The Earth plunges into a new horror called nuclear winter…

The result of a large-scale nuclear exchange, wrote scientists with the Defense Nuclear Agency, would be “atmospheric trauma”—and with “serious potential for severe consequences” for Earth’s “weather and climate.” “Of course there are uncertainties with nuclear winter scenarios,” physicist Frank von Hippel tells us today. “But there’s no uncertainty if you inject that much soot into the atmosphere after a [full-scale] nuclear war.”…

“Our first models [in 1983] said nuclear winter would last about one year,” Toon explains. “New data suggests the Earth’s recovery time would be more like ten years… when the sun’s warming rays will reduce by roughly 70 percent.”

Temperatures plunge. Severe and prolonged low temperatures grip the Earth. The region worst affected is the midlatitudes, the part of the Northern Hemisphere between 30 and 60 degrees latitude. This includes the United States and Canada, Europe, East Asia, and Central Asia. With these extreme temperature drops, summer weather becomes like winter. Toon says, “New data shows that in places like Iowa and Ukraine, the temperature will not go above freezing for six years.”…

Months of cold and almost no sunlight after nuclear World War III triggers another series of fatal assaults on the Earth’s ecosystem. Rainfall is reduced by 50 percent. This means the death of agriculture. The death of farming. The death of crops. After 10,000 years of [human history of] planting and harvesting, humans return to a hunter-gatherer state…

After nuclear winter, the food chain breaks down. Nothing new grows in the cold and the dark. In this scenario, in all but a small region of the Southern Hemisphere (including Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, and parts of Paraguay), widespread famine grips the Earth. The conclusion drawn in 2022—by ten scientists working on four continents, in a paper for Nature Food—is succinct: “More than 5 billion could die from a [nuclear] war between the United States and Russia.”…

After many months, the cold and the dark become less severe. The intense effects of radioactive fog and haze diminish. The toxic smog dissipates. Light from the sun shines down on the earth once again. And with the sunlight comes yet another set of lethal consequences of nuclear war. The sun’s warming rays are now killer ultraviolet rays.

For millions of years, the ozone layer protected all living things from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays, acting like a gentle shield. Not after nuclear war. Nuclear explosions and the ensuing firestorms inject mass amounts of nitrous oxides into the stratosphere. As a result, more than half the ozone layer is in ruin. A 2021 study on “Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War,” conducted with computational support by the National Science Foundation, found that after a fifteen-year period the ozone would lose as much as 75 percent of its shielding power worldwide…

First there was cold and famine, now there is harsh sunlight, pathogens, and plague. Insects swarm. The warm weather after nuclear winter becomes a breeding ground for disease. A study by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation found that insects are far less sensitive to radiation than vertebrates, owing to their physiology and short life cycles. Hordes of winged and multi-legged bugs are everywhere, and are multiplying. Many of these insects’ natural predators, like birds, have mostly been killed off by the cold and the dark. The return of the sun’s warming rays brings with it massive outbreaks and epidemics of insect-borne diseases like encephalitis, rabies, and typhus…

The question remains: Will nuclear weapons bring on the end of the species that made these nuclear weapons in the first place? Only time will tell if we humans will survive. (Annie Jacobsen, Nuclear War [Penguin, 2024], 281-289).

Jacobsen’s research does reflect what the Bible predicts regarding the Antichrist’s Attack on Endtime Babylon (America):

The ten horns [10-nation Endtime Coalition] that you saw, and the beast [Antichrist] will hate the Prostitute [Endtime Babylon, America], and these will permanently remove all people from her and strip her naked and they will devour her body and will burn her down with fire [such that no one survives or ever lives there again] (Rev 17:16; 18:21-23)

But again, the nuclear warfare predicted in Scripture is more limited than what Jacobsen envisions.